Halifax, NS real estate market outlook 2023

We sat down with our realtor partner Nick Ogden to give us an outlook on the Halifax real estate market for 2023. Nick is an expert on the Halifax, Nova Scotia area and if you’re looking to buy you can find him at his website: makehalifaxhome.ca

How has the Halifax real estate market done over the past year?

The Halifax Regional Municipality has seen massive gains in home prices in the last three years with a peak in April 2022 with the average home selling for $564,000 (NSAR InfoSparks). This is due to a few obvious reasons and a couple that folks may not completely realize. Halifax is the largest city East of Montreal, and over the past 5 years we have seen a strong increase in multiculturalism with our food and entertainment scene exploding. We have a provincial government that for many years has focused on encouraging immigration. We have also seen massive population gains through in-migration; Nova Scotia has been a “have-not” province for decades and now we have more young people moving back home than ever! 

We’re seeing an increase in industry across the board, from the Irving Ship Building projects to Ubisoft having a campus here, Business to Business and banking services, as well as tech and marine technology companies thriving. 

Nova Scotia, and Halifax specifically, is entering a renaissance that I am so excited to be a young person for. One of the driving factors of this push is our timezone. We have the most favourable timezone to be able to do business with Europe, the Eastern Seaboard, the Western side of North America, and even Asia! We are truly blessed. 

All of this is to say that our real estate market is seeing pressures that it has probably never seen before. 

Our single family home inventory here in Halifax saw its lowest ever level in January 2022, looking at our inventories in 2023 we are up but not by much. If we zoom out 5 years and compare January 2023 to January 2018, we are down roughly 334%! Even though we are seeing more homes on the market compared to even 2 years ago, we are still massively in a “Sellers Market”. 

If we look at our months of supply we have climbed to 1.2 months in January 2023 compared to 0.3 months in January 2022, significantly more but we are still poised for a price run-up if rate conditions change. 

How has the market responded to the rate hikes from the Bank of Canada?

Overall the rate hikes are doing what the Bank of Canada wanted them to do, slow the market down and decrease prices. 

However, as rates start to seem to stabilize, I’m concerned buyers are going to get comfortable paying more for the money they need and bidding wars may start again. I do not think we are going to see bids of 20%-40% over asking like we did in Spring 2022, which drove the average price higher than it has ever been in Halifax, but I do think that we are going to see multiple-bid situations and buyers competing on other factors. 

What I would hate to see are buyer conditions starting to get waived like the horror stories in other Canadian markets. We have an older resale inventory here in Halifax and with that come with specific challenges. Inspections catch these challenges and help the conversation between the buyer and seller to bring forth fair market value. 

I do think that we are in a much more “normal” interest rate environment that can help future-proof buyers against any further rate increases. I do fear however, that if we maintain these rates for the next couple years as those folks that locked in their 5-years at 2.00% they are going to get a nasty wake-up call come renewal. 

What factors do you see impacting the market?

• Interest Rates 
• Inventory 
• Municipal Infrastructure 
• Taxes

We have seen our population grow very quickly over the past couple years and with our provincial government positioning us to receive high immigration numbers, I think we are going to see even more pressure put on the housing (and rental) market. Paired with that are the municipal systems that support housing, Halifax Municipality has come out with the Centre Plan which outlines new guidelines for our city’s core but that is not enough. As I chat with more folks coming from larger cities the common thread in conversation is that Halifax is clearly trying to catch up to our growth but we need to continue to work on ourselves. We have such an opportunity in our hands, I hope that our council can capitalize on it! 

Where do you see the market going in the future?

We are seeing a push on single-family, condo, and apartment developments. Our market is still very seller centric and I do not see that changing for the foreseeable future until substantial development happens. Our inventory across the board is very below demand, as I mentioned earlier, and I worry that we are going to see another price run-up in Q2 of 2023. 

What advice would you give to someone thinking about buying in Halifax?

I keep hearing from buyers and those thinking of buying “is now a good time to buy?”. I constantly say that the BEST time to buy is always yesterday. If you can afford the payments and you find a home that you love, then do not wait to get into the market! We are only going to see continued inventory pressures that will inevitably mean increased prices, especially if rates come down at all. 

It is a great time to buy. 

Make sure you are getting all the information you need to make accurate and informed decisions. Building a strong team of real estate professionals around you is incredibly important so that you are supported from start to finish. 

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Thanks to Nick Ogden for answering these questions and giving us insight into the Halifax market.

Nick’s contact info:

Nick Ogden REALTOR® PRESS REALTY 

(902) 240-0635 | nogden@pressrealty.ca

Check out our interest rate forecast for an up to date outlook on the mortgage market, including where our analysts predict rates will go over the next 5 years. 

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