North York, ON real estate market outlook 2023

We sat down with our realtor partner Melissa Oag to give us an outlook on the North York real estate market for 2023. 

Melissa is a realtor with Greater Property Group

She specializes in GTA market activity, including buyer/seller trends.

How has the North York real estate market done over the past year?

The GTA market is down across the board from the high in early 2022 as a result of the rate hikes from the Bank of Canada. At the same time, prices are still well above pre-pandemic levels and we’re seeing them start to reverse course already with prices increasing in Q1 2023.

The market has been steadily picking up over the months in the first quarter of 2023 as buyers seem to have come to terms with the current rates and have adjusted their financial plans accordingly.

Listing numbers are up compared to this time in 2022 as many sellers want to have their homes sold before the peak summer months to take advantage of warm weather and vacation time. Typically spring is the most active season of the year, before sales and listings drop off in the summer as both buyers and sellers enjoy the summer months, prepare their kids for the school year, etc. If you’re looking to buy, generally the spring is a great time to buy for that reason as sellers can be in a rush to sell, so you can find a home at a great price.

Source: CREA

How has the market responded to the rate hikes from the Bank of Canada?

Lower inventory than demand is still playing the strongest role in buyer activity. With buyers feeling that the end to the rate hikes is near, they’re scooping up the homes that are available while the market is still somewhat down due to high rates.

At the same time this is causing some more competition in the market as supply begins to get bought up and if the rates start to come back down, the market could heat up fast.

Despite the modest selection of home inventory that is available, the homes for sale are still up considerably from last year, with many sellers willing to take the “hit” on the selling end in order to take advantage of the cost savings on a home purchase through the buying end. In other words, homeowners are rushing to sell so they can enter into the buyers market while it still lasts.

What factors do you see impacting the North York market?

Buyer competition is back and in full swing as inventory is getting bought up. The relative strength of buyers and how they approach their offers matters more. For someone looking in the market right now, completing the appropriate due diligence and coming up with the right game-plan is key to winning offers in the current market.

As for specific factors I’ll be looking to for future price movement, the next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement in June comes to mind first. The summer months could bring inventory levels down even further, leading to increased competition among the buyers.

What I’m seeing is that properties with top-to-bottom contemporary finishes are winning buyers over and seem to be the ones that buyers’ are fighting for, as renovation costs including materials have stayed high. Overall it seems that there are more people looking to buy in 2023 compared to 2022, which comes as no surprise with the massive rate hikes we had last year.

Where do you see the North York market going in the future?

Here’s my forecast for North York in the near-term. The summer months ahead will likely bring inventory down again and drive up competition further for buyers who are already looking at a limited supply of properties.

The June Bank of Canada announcement could affect prices slightly depending on whether they decide to hold rates steady again. With that being said, I believe a small hike is unlikely to slow the market down due to continued demand from buyers at this price point.

What advice would you give to someone thinking about buying in North York?

Location in North York is very important, get up to speed with the neighbourhoods and work with a realtor to find the right place for you. The ideal locations for long term resale value in North York include ones within a 1.5km radius (short walk) to a major TTC, subway line, highway, hospital or school.

For those looking to buy in North York in 2023, come up with an adequate game plan with your realtor to ensure you have checked all of the boxes and have everything prepared in order to be able to go in as strong as possible with an offer and take advantage of the prices in this current market.

Thanks to Melissa for sharing these insights into the North York market with us.

You can reach Melissa here for all things Real Estate:

Call/text: (647) 282-2589

Check out our interest rate forecast for an up to date outlook on the mortgage market, including where our analysts predict rates will go over the next 5 years. 

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