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Read the 2025 interest rate forecast.

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Key Takeaways

  • Our current best fixed rate is 3.89% (vs 3.69% in Sept) and variable rate of 3.85% (Prime -0.85%, unchanged since Sept).
  • For first-time home buyers, listings remain elevated (especially for condos) in most major markets and will remain higher for the next few quarters. We expect it will remain a buyer’s market until at least Q2 2026.
  • For homeowners coming up for renewal, our Mortgage Renewal Calculator can help plan ahead to get a sense of what rate you can expect from your lender at renewal, what your new payment would look like and how Perch can help.
  • For homeowners who would like to be automatically notified when there’s a benefit to switching lenders and breaking their mortgage early, Perch automatically calculates the net benefit on a weekly basis for all your existing properties. Make sure to sign up for your free profile today.

Mortgage Rates Prediction

For the month of November, we anticipate minimal movement in fixed rates and variable rates.

Canada’s bond yields (which influence fixed mortgage rates) have decreased by roughly 0.10% in the last month (Source: Bank of Canada):


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Upcoming Bank of Canada rate announcement (October 29, 2025)

We look at some of the core factors that the Bank is monitoring to gauge which direction they are likely to go. In this case, indicators would support either a cut or a hold and we believe the Bank of Canada will hold rates:

  • Real GDP Growth: GDP growth in Q2 of 2025 slowed to 1.2% (Source: Trading Economics). The Bank of Canada is expecting GDP growth of 0.8-1.6% in 2025 and -0.2-1.4% in 2026. This is below expectations and would support a cut. (Source: Bank of Canada)
  • Inflation: Core inflation (year over year) in Sept was 2.8% (vs 2.6% in Aug), above the Bank’s 2% inflation target and is stubbornly staying in the high 2s. This would support a hold. (Source: Trading Economics)
  • Unemployment: Remained stable at 7.1% in Sept (0.5% higher than 1 year ago). On an absolute level, this is above what is deemed to be maximum sustainable employment and would justify a cut. (Source: Trading Economics)
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Buyer Mortgage Balances Prediction: Decline (condos) and flat (non-condos)

We continue to believe that non-apartment/condo properties will experience flat or slightly upward price movements and apartment/condos prices in major markets will continue to face lower prices until excess inventory is absorbed.

Home Prices

As a general rule of thumb, a sales to new listings ratio (SLR) above 60 is deemed a seller’s market, below 30 a buyer’s market and between the two a balanced market). In a seller’s market, prices are usually rising due to demand outstripping supply available and in a buyer’s market prices are declining due to supply of new listings being greater than the demand from buyers.

Canada’s SLR remained at 51 for the month of August (Source: CREA) and we are in a balanced market nationally.

This is the national average and major cities are trending well below the average. For example, according to HouseSigma the Greater Toronto Area is a buyer’s market with an SLR of 19 for September. The SLR for condos is even worse (16) as we continue to see excess levels of inventory. Detached homes are faring better at 20%.

According to CREA, the National Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was flat month-over-month and declined by 3.4% year-over-year.