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Read the 2025 interest rate forecast.

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Key Takeaways

  • Our current best fixed rate is 3.89% and variable rate of 4.10% (Prime -0.85%).
  • For first-time home buyers, listings remain fairly high (especially for condos) in most major markets and should remain at elevated for the next few quarters. It will remain a buyer’s market for the near term.
  • For homeowners who are coming up for renewal, our Mortgage Renewal Calculator can help you plan ahead to get a sense of what rate you can expect from your lender at renewal, what your new payment would look like and how Perch can help.
  • For homeowners who would like to be automatically notified when there’s a benefit to switching lenders and breaking their mortgage early, Perch automatically calculates the net benefit on a weekly basis for all your existing properties. Make sure to sign up for your free profile today.

Mortgage Rates Prediction

For the month of June, we anticipate fixed rates will stay flat and variable rates as well, assuming the Bank of Canada holds on June 4th.

Canada’s bond yields (which influence fixed mortgage rates) have increased by roughly 0.20% in the last quarter (Source: Bank of Canada):


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Upcoming Bank of Canada rate announcement (June 4, 2025)

We look at some of the core factors that the Bank is monitoring to gauge which direction they are likely to go. In this case, indicators would support either a cut or a hold:

  • Real GDP Growth: GDP growth in Q1 of 2025 slowed to 1.8%, below the Bank of Canada’s expectations relative to the January outlook. The Bank of Canada is expecting GDP growth of 0.8-1.6% in 2025 and -0.2-1.4% in 2026. This is below expectations and would support a cut. (Source: Bank of Canada)
  • Inflation: Core inflation (year over year) in April was 2.5% (vs 2.2% in March), above the Bank’s 2% inflation target and is trending upward, which would support a hold. (Source: Trading Economics)
  • Unemployment: Increased to 6.9% in April (0.7% higher than 1 year ago). On an absolute level, this is considered a reasonable amount of unemployment, and the generally flat trend in the past few months would justify a hold. (Source: Trading Economics)

Buyer Mortgage Balances Prediction: Flat (condos) and up (non-condos)

We continue to believe that non-apartment/condo properties will experience slight upward price movements, and apartment/condo prices in major markets will continue to face lower prices until excess inventory is absorbed.

Home Prices

As a general rule of thumb, a sales-to-new-listings ratio (SLR) above 60 is deemed a seller’s market, below 30 a buyer’s market, and between the two a balanced market. In a seller’s market, prices are usually rising due to demand outstripping supply available, and in a buyer’s market, prices are declining due to the supply of new listings being greater than the demand from buyers.

Canada continues to edge closer to Buyer’s Market territory, with an SLR dropping to 46, as shown by CREA.

This is the national average and major cities are trending well below the average. For example, according to HouseSigma, the Greater Toronto Area is a buyer’s market with an SLR of 20.


The SLR for condos is even worse (15) as we continue to see excess levels of inventory. Detached homes are faring better 22%.

According to CREA, the National Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) declined by 1.2% month-over-month and declined by 3.6% year-over-year.